Sunday 4 November 2007

Time to Think about Major Strategy Change

Recent developments in our homeland and the attention it gets in the
international community give Burmese another hope for a democratic
change. And the change of tones from world capitals especially from
neighboring countries makes us rethink our strategy how to topple the
long-rooted authoritarian rule.

First and foremost, it is no surprising for us to hear more
condemnations and sanctions from the West including the United States.
It is natural for western democratic governments to support any
democratic movement worldwide. However, we should also note that the
sanctions imposed so far failed to act on companies that are currently
benefiting from Burma, eg. Total. The sanctions also missed the
individuals and groups that support the regime financially, eg. Max
Myanmar. In my opinion, the opposition groups in exile are depending
too much on the west that leads to suspicions from some Asian
capitals. The best strategy with the west is to convince them that
future benefits after the democratic change in Burma is much greater
for western firms and some sacrifices have to be done presently to
achieve our common goals. At the same time, the opposition groups
should have access to lawmakers and government officials to discuss
about expanding the list of sanction. With those changes, it will be
very difficult for the regime and its cronies to call the "business as
usual".

Secondly, let me discuss about the two giants, China and India,
surrounding our country. The Dragon and Tiger found the common game
field, Burma. It is not in their interest to have a democratic Burma
nor a Western supported government of any kind in their backyard.
Their main interest is not to let the other dominates the game field
and to prey on scarce food, here it refers to resources. China is more
important for military government because it is a permanent member of
UN Security Council and is providing logical and material support for
the SPDC. The opposition groups in exile should admit the fact that
their initiatives on boycotting Olympics will result in nothing but
the media attention and applauses from the oppressed Burmese. No
western government will support the idea and it will push Chinese
government to continue defending SPDC rather than pushing SPDC to
change. Opposition groups in exile should continue talking to China
and use conciliatory measures to keep China pressure the regime. In
case of India, we have nothing but to let India stay neutral as long
as it does not promote SPDC. It yields no power on Burma and it will
take whatever it gets from the regime to keep its mouth shut. The
ideologies are the same for Russia and it is natural to see Russia to
counter the West. We should never expect the moral values from these
three countries.

Lastly, and most importantly opposition groups should increase their
relations with ASEAN countries especially with its current president,
Singapore. Recent changes in their stance toward the regime are
plausible especially from Singapore. Today, I have read an article
from Channel News Asia, a semi-government mouth piece, about Ministry
of Foreign Affairs' response to 88 Generation Students Group's letter.
Never did they recognize the existence of such a group before. I am
sure it is time for the opposition groups to grasp the opportunity to
contact Singapore government to exchange views. It is obvious that
Singapore and other ASEAN governments don't want to see an outpost of
China in Burma.

Let me conclude by saying that it is time for us, especially the
opposition groups in exile under different banners, to rethink the
strategic plans according to the developments happening rather than to
stick our old strategies. The world has changed in its response and so
must we.

An Ordinary Burmese Analyst

7 comments:

ZHA said...

Thanks for your article.
i like the headline and conclusion calling for "Major Stratey Change".
Many ordinary Burmese have similar opinion and thinking of strategy change in our cause.
We cannot go on with this vicious circle forever. How many times have we walked the same path in Burma?Our protest, brutal crack down by military,detention, our jail terms,seeking asylum in overseas, short term international media attention.....no progress in social, economical and political area..
Effectiveness of the US & EU led sanction on Burma is debatable in the humanitarian ground of millions of ordinary people.
We all need to re-evelaute ourselves for our path and strategy .
I respect all the sacrifices and endurance of our brave pro-democracy activists.
But,This is time for NLD and all other pro-democracy activists in and outside of Burma to be united for our strategy shift for the sake of People.
Afterall, end result is what matter most.
Our ideology, value and belief are only second to helping prople's basic needs in their day to day lives.

Take care all!!

some of my blog can be seen at.
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/zawhtooaung

Australia Burma Charity (Inc.) said...

We do need a strategic change. Time is our worst enemy. We do depend on the WEST because they believe in Freedom and Democracy and will always support our cause. WE cannot depend on our ASIAN friends and neighbours as they themselves are not very democratic and do not show any inclination to help us. Off and on you might get ASEAN say a word or two against the junta but that is all. China will not want to have a different government in Burma as it will lose it's influence both militarily and economically, so they will do their best to keep the junta in power. India, post 1995 is again the same. It won't want to lose it's cheap source of energy and will reiterate it's foreign policy of Non-Interference. Yet in 1971, it interfered in the Internal Affairs of Pakistan creating Bangladesh and two years ago supported forces trying to dispose of the Monarchy in Nepal. How come, when it comes to Burma it swears by it's policy of NON-Interference.
ASEAN members go crazy when they hear the word "SANCTIONS". They hate it and have declared that they will not support it. Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are the main ASEAN countries with the most investments in Burma. If UN Sanctions were applied they would stand to lose a lot. South Africa became a free country because of UN Sanctions. As we all know a brutal White minority government refused to deal with Black South Africans until sanctions were applied. If a brutal military regime refuses to talk to the opposition parties, WHY should UN sanctions NOT be applied. Are these countries supporting the victims or the aggressors? This is the reason why people who are terrorised by the State look upon WESTERN countries and NOT the ASIAN or EASTERN countries for support.
The people of Burma are not seeking the impossible. All they want is FOOD, SHELTER, EDUCATION and GOOD HEALTH.This is their birthright and NOBODY should deprive them of such basic needs.
The most recent economic sanctions by the US has hit at the heart of the junta. The demise of AIR BAGAN on the Asian airways is most welcome. The sanctions against the sale of precious stones and teak will again hit the junta. The democracy activists outside Burma have done a great job and I support them. They must apply a bit more pressure on Western countries to start talks very similar to the 6 party talks that has eventually brought peace, for the moment, to the Korean Peninsular. Mr. Gambari is in Burma and we have not seen his proposals towards bringing peace and reconciliation in Burma. 2007 is not the same as 1988 and the junta knows it. We have to think of a very good plan to bring genuine peace to Burma.

FREE BURMA NOW!

Unknown said...

Thank you for your courage to write this analysis.
Your main point seems to be- economics is the main motivation for the different players- that is so correct. Even for the generals- they are motivated by personal benefits, as well as their supporters inside and outside.
But at the moment they benefit from "dirty economics", corruption and sell-out of resources on any price. A clean company not willing to corrupt, could not survive in Burma at the moment.

If there is a FREE economy players would profit much more from it, GDP would grow immensely, there would be a market of 50 million people instantly- Asean, China and India could profit much more from it than from those dirty little sections, which size means nothing on international scale. That is realistically more important for them than the political system.

Helz Cuppleditch said...

Thank you for sharing this article. I have been in touch with an organisation that monitors the situation regarding Total Oil in Burma, and the impact it has on the local people.

The decision for Total Oil to invest in the area was wrong, but if they pulled out I have no doubt a Chinese company would take over, and that would be a tragedy.

When Triumph de-invested from Burma, it sold it's assets to a Korean company, and the garment industry lowered it's wages as there was no Western benchmark. The daily wage was lowered to 75 cents for a 14 hour day. It resulted in many women being reduced to prostitution as the only way to feed their families.

My view is that people should lobby Total Oil so that (1) THEY are more vocal in Burma, and (2)THEY invest more money into schooling, healthcare and welfare for the people and the country. They already have a strong socio-economic system in the area of the gas pipeline: by way of schools, hospitals and veterinary establishments. But they need to speak louder and act more.

My opinion is that a positive and creative approach is needed, not de-investment. Ideas and opinions for progress could be forwarded to Jean-François Lassalle (a hot-shot at Total Oil).

Love and peace

Helz

Thway Ni said...

ုko htike... really great analyst! Pls allow us to re-post this at our blog.

-Thway Ni-
Burmese Bloggers w/o Borders
(http://bbwob.blogspot.com)

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